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Thursday, July 25, 2013

Q/Q Challenge Sketchy Results

So here's the a conclusion to the Qualitative/Quantitative Challenge. Who are the top revenue earners according to the Obstacle Course Race Database?



I got 5 out of 8. But that quantitative list still looks funny. I mean, Ridiculous Obstacle Challenge is one of the top 8 races? Dirty Girl is making more than Spartan? Spartan is making less than half of Tough Mudder? Seems screwy. It's time to go down to the nitty gritty of this list and validate the income. 

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Qualitative/Quantitative Challenge

So the journey to create insight into the world of obstacle course racing through purely public online means has begun with the creation of the Obstacle Course Race Database. With well over 1,000 Google searches and clicking through site after site after site after site... I attempted to find the number of runners per race, races per series, and average cost of registration to speculate race series' revenue from registration. It's not perfect but it's got to start somewhere. We learned from Nate Silver that models are never perfect but a good modeler will work to improve what s/he's got. 

Since many people are afraid of numbers, they won't bother with the data (quantitative information) and will rely on what they already know and can easily find (qualitative information). Former Orlando Magic head coach, Stan Van Gundy, said at this year's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, "I don't need an inch-thick packet of data to tell me that LeBron James is good at basketball." Nor did he have time to sort through and mentally digest that information. Well, I'm no NBA head coach. I don't work for a major OCR sponsor. I'm not a frequent OCR runner. But I do pay attention when I hear about races and do have Google at my fingertips. So what did I already know or could easily find?

The Qualitative Guess:
I spent about 10 minutes making a preliminary list of which race series I thought were the biggest players in the industry and filled in the model before filling in the blanks A-Z. Here were my top guesses and their estimated revenue.


There you have it. I'll post what I found soon. I'm off to sort some data.

PS: I'll try to sync the bar graph color with the blog color next time. Maybe some bigger font too. 

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

The OC Race Database is Ready. Let the Fun Begin.

1000 Google searches and two cookie-deletions. An initial database is built. Bring on the data sort, conditional formatting, scatter charts, histograms, regressions, and industry-transforming insights that Nostradamus himself could not foresee.

Just kidding. I'm going to buy crayons and a spirograph tomorrow.

But seriously, hopefully I'll figure something out.

Friday, July 12, 2013

The Model is Somewhat Validated by the Tough Mudder

Good news, the model is kind of right.

I temporarily paused the drudgery of looking up each race alphabetically, made a list of races that I thought were the most successful based on personal knowledge and Google results (the qualitative challenge I mentioned in the last post), and went back to filling in the blanks of the database.

Of course the Tough Mudder was on the list of leaders. Tough Mudder was transparent enough to provide a couple of figures for the public on its hiring page. What did it say for 2013?


aaaand...


Show me $70M and 500,000 participants!!


$70 million right on the money! Neat. Buuuut we also see that I was off by about 77,500 runners or roughly 13%. Not terrible but not great. What can we learn from this number?

1) The number of runners is obviously too high. We know the number of locations for a fact so I will have to dig deeper on a few stats:
      -Hours of waves leaving
      -Waves per hour
      -Days per location
      -Runners/Wave
I can mathematically prove average number of hours and waves/hour by taking samples but I'm not sure how to figure out Runners/Wave without going to an event, expertly Googling or asking around. I pulled 350 out of thin air but based it on the 300 that Spartan (a high demand race) released + 50 based on the added length of the course. I will keep you posted on any refining I do to this number. 

2) TM is making more per runner than I estimated by about 13%. 


Either the average runner is paying more than my average price (which is weird given the number of discounts available) or roughly 13% of revenue is made from a combination of sponsors, merchandise, and other sales. I might be able to figure out spectator ticket sales but it will take some insider info to get at the remaining 13%. Maybe it's not that important to a company that is SLOWING to 100% growth each year. 

Either way, it seems to balance out in my model. Which is cool. Broken clocks are right twice a day but there is only a .14% chance of it happening on any random minute.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

The Obstacle Course (OC) Race Database

I started following several OC races on Twitter to begin my prep for the grand endeavor of defining and examining success within the OC Race industry. I came across mudrunguide.com which keeps a directory of 257 of the world's greatest mud runs and links to their websites. Ah, easy.

Mkay, great start. What do we want to know? We want to know how much income each race makes, (we'll worry about costs later). How do we do that? We follow this awesome model.

Race Annual Income = 
Average Price of Registration X
Number of Runners X 

Number of Locations

Some of these variables have their own variables. Here are some of the challenges with filling in each blank and examples of how I fill it in for the XTREME XAMPLE MUD RUN which is completely made up.

Average Price of Registration:
The cost of registering for a race generally rises as you near the date of the event. The price increase and date progression are not always proportional so I average the race day registration and early bird registration.

EG: Early bird registration: $65
Race day registration: $100
(100+65) / 2= $82.5 per registration

It's extremely simplified but cut me some slack, I have to do this 257 times.

Source, the link actually leads to a pretty cool business idea.
Number of Runners:
This can easily be found by finding a Race Results board. Unfortunately, I'm only finding those for about 30% of races. This has been a major wrench in the spokes for a lot of races but I'm able to bootstrap my way to a pretty good approximation after a little research on hundreds of pages.

If there are no race results, I've been finding the number of waves/city which can be directly found or deduced by start and end times.

EG: The first wave is at 8:00 AM (8). The race continues until 2:30 PM (14.5) when the final wave is released. Waves start every 15-20 minutes (3-4/hour). Waves are limited to 300 runners.

So 14.5-8=6.5 hours at 3-4 waves/hour. 3.5 X 6.5 = 22.75 waves.

I then look at number of open spots (if shown) in each wave and generalize ~200/wave.

So 22.75 X 200 = 4, 550 runners/city.

A single wave from the Dirty Girl, multiply by lots. Source.
Number of Locations:
This is the easiest. You can usually just click on "Events" and count.

EG: Chicago + New England + New Jersey + Pennsylvania = 4. Voila, 4 locations.

The Spartan Race's current global distribution. Making boucoups USD, CAD, and GBP. Source.
I changed it from Number of Race Days because the number of days were rarely consistent in the number of waves. As in, waves on Saturday are not equal to the waves on Sunday. Since I'm counting waves already, I account for it in the Number of Runners.

Summary:
Based on the XTREME XAMPLE MUD RUN which posted the numbers listed above, the XXMR boasts 4,550 runners paying $82.5 each in 4 locations. This brings in about $1.5 million. Nice work guys.

Next time I'll talk about what insights we might be able to gain from this data. I'm also going to challenge myself to qualitatively figure out the quantitative part. Should be fun.

Saturday, July 6, 2013

OCR Registration Income Model. Prettyyyy Rough

You read last time that I was creating a model for income for Obstacle Course Races so that I could determine what are some of the key factors to success in this quickly growing industry. I also said that it would be prettyyyy prettyyyy prettyyyy pretty rough, at least in the beginning. Prepare to be awestruck by this mathematical marvel:

Race Series Annual Income = 
(Average price of registration) x 
(Number of runners per race) x
(Number of race days) 


Let's look at an initial list of shortcomings so I can work on them in the future.

1) It neglects sponsor money and  food, retail, spectator ticket, and parking sales.

2) Average Price of Registration excludes:
Date of registration discounts: People registered three months in advance pay $60, "day-of" registerers pay $110
Special group discounts: veterans, students,organized teams, and volunteers benefit from this.
Coupons: You saw it in your Groupon Daily Deals and thought about it. Admit it.

3) Number of Runners: When race results are not posted I have to find the number of heats/day and guess how many runners are in each heat. Even then, heats aren't always full or published. But basically that's...

Number of Daily Runners =
[(Starting hour of last heat) -

(Starting hour of first heat)] x 
(Number of heats/hour) x 
(Runners/heat)

4) Number of Races Annually:

(Number of locations) x 
(Days of racing at each location)

So that's the start. I have at least 257 races to comb through and collect data. I'll write about differentiated and successful races throughout the process.

PS: How great are the faces of the people Larry David said, "pretty good," to? Straight faces hanging on the edge of the laughter cliff by a thread. 

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Obstacle Course Racing (OCR): Defining Success

I mentioned in my summer missions post that I'd be "Exploring the keys to success in the fitness and sports industries" and I'm finally on my way. I'm dedicating this week to Obstacle Course Races, a growing trend in American fitness and recreation. I believe that the growth of this phenomenon lies in America's need for adventure. Life's too easy to run on paved roads.

To find the keys to success, we need to understand what success is. So what am I talking about? In the business world, success is profitability. Profit = Income - Cost. High number = successful. Low number = unsuccessful. For now.

Like many small businesses, OCR series aren't public companies so we can't look at their cash flows or balance sheets or any other accounting documents. However, I'm going to take a stab at each series' income. And by take a stab at, I mean guessing with the precision of a piƱata bat. My models will not be very precise is what I'm getting at...  It's the MBA way.

Rough as it may be to begin with, I will be able to refine the models as I go.

For now, I have to rely on Google to find the data.  And some will have to be pulled out of thin air. Where do the thin air numbers come from? Find out next time...

Good old-fashioned self-deprecation. Source

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Why Exercise?

Frequent readers... and there are none of you... may have seen the wrap-up of the Superhero Scramble in which I got "sweaty, muddy, bruised, and sometimes bloody." We concluded the article with the question, why do people do this? Let's back up and go to the highest level possible so we can land on a better answer. Why do people exercise? Well I can't speak for the world but I can speak for myself.

Why do I exercise?

It's Challenging: Why choose mud runs, or marathons, or six pack abs as a goal? Why climb the highest mountain?  Why, 86 years ago, fly the Atlantic? Why does Rice play Texas? We choose to exercise in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard. (skip to 8:20)

Although JFK is implying we went to the moon for the challenge, we know it was really just to beat the Soviets and because it's awesome. The Vikings went to Canada first, the Spanish went to the Carribean, the Portuguese went to India, and America went to the moon.* Why? Because it was awesome. I think competition and adventure are two subsets of achievement that cause people to exercise. Onward...

When winning gets old. Source
-To Compete: I'll define competition as attempting the same goal as other people to see who can do it best.

It's plain and simple, winning is great. It shows that you're good at something or at least better than other people. If you find yourself winning all the time, it gets old. You may even do something drastic like leave your 3 time NBA championship team to play baseball for the Birmingham Barons.

But not everyone can win. Quitting and denial of effort are back-ups in the event of a loss. The best approaches to losing are either learning from mistakes and improving or realizing that you are bad and accepting it. That's why there are handicaps in golf, right?

-To Find Adventure: I'll define adventure as stepping outside of your comfort zone to accomplish something previously thought to be impossible with a high level of risk. It's why (some) Soldiers want to go to war, superheros scramble, skydivers skydive, and Bodhi likes to rob banks. It's the ultimate rush.

Obviously, this is one of the main products that sports like mud runs and rock climbing offer. People that want to do this want to show themselves and the world that they are bad mofos. This is probably because growing up in the suburbs and working in a cubicle are not that physically demanding or threatening.

To Socially Interact: I'll define this as building and nurturing friendships with others through a shared hobby. Take a look at all the run clubs that are popping up around the US. Boston has an enormous run club called the November Project. To kick things off, everyone greets and hugs someone new before running hills or stadium steps. Conversations between runners even continue into the run. Where else can you make friends like this in your sneakers?

The social interaction aspect started long ago when sports were invented. There's nothing like getting together with your best friends and taking on another group of friends. Think rugby, the closest sport to a fight with a ball. They destroy each other on the field then have beers and sing dirty songs in English that I can't understand.

Health: The human body is an adaptable machine that builds competence in what it does. If sitting in a seat on the way to work, at work, on the way back from work, and at a computer at home is what it does, that's all it will do. If you want to be ready to do anything more than sit without hurting yourself, you have to exercise. It also helps you...

The early girdle. Source.
-To Look Good: Whether it's the guy/gal looking at you in the mirror or guy/gal looking at you walking by, it's nice to be sexy and know it. It's why God invented plastic surgery and Queen Elizabeth I invented girdles.

-To Feel Good: Here's WebMD's take on the mental health aspect. This stuff is pretty common knowledge by now, right? Endorphins, sleep, diet and whatnot.

-To Clear the Mind: I vividly remember yoga classes where I was told to forget all my worries and feel peaceful... which made me remember my worries and feel uneasy. I sometimes prefer the isolation that comes with a run and headphones. There are times when you need to get away from the stresses of real life like deadlines, bills and the Gilgo Beach Killer. Focusing on low-consequence efforts like miles and reps can help you relax and refocus.

-To Live Longer: Sustained physical activity over the years has the ability to prevent all kinds of illnesses that come later in life (later, on average, because many of them make you die). Young athletes generally have this benefit in mind but it's not their high on the list of important benefits. Your 80 year old self will be glad you played outside when you were younger.

To Enable Activities in Real Life: You usually hear people say, "to live a fuller life." You'll hear exercise goals such as, "To keep up with my grandkids," or, "be ready for that trip to... place where people hike." These exercisers are having some physical challenge and have to build up to be able to meet it.

This list is not totally comprehensive but it is a good starting point to figuring out if there are better alternatives and characterize types of exercise, motives and trends. We will dig deeper and hopefully get some perspectives other than my own.

*May be historically inaccurate but probably not, according to American history books in 1962, when Kennedy made the speech

Sunday, June 16, 2013

The Superhero Scramble

Team Red, White, and Blue's (Team RWB) Massachusetts got a random email from a point of contact at the Superhero Scramble asking if some veterans would be willing to help with the administration of their race in exchange for a free bib number and t-shirt. Why thankee.

A few of us got on board and played in the mud for free by volunteering. I ran the Spartan Race at the same park in Amesbury, MA and did pretty well in August 2012.

I finished with a time of ~53:00 for a 4.4 mile course which earned me 4th place overall, 4th for gender, 1st in age group. Out of ~1,100 runners that's a pretty phenomenal finish if I do say so myself. But let's not get too excited over a good but not out-of-this-world physical feat. So how can YOU succeed?

Keys to Success

Nail the Ring Swing: This video shows the easiest way to do it. It demands a little strength, a little patience and a lot of coordination.

Be Aggressive on Slippery Hills: There is a way to go down a hill that is too slippery for running or walking (also works great on snow). Squat down on one leg and extend one in front of you (to buffer any rocks or trees you may run into) and put your hands to the side to keep balance. Think of a pistol squat with hands on the side for steering and braking. It's risky but fast and looks awesome. Which is the most important thing. If you're not comfortable with this, just keep three points of contact on the ground or slide down on your butt.
The Pistol Squat (Source)

Trust Your Feet in Puddles: A lot of runners were afraid of falling in a hole or stepping on something sharp (or snakes). Keep your knees bent, keep your weight back so your front foot can "explore" where the next step will be, and step gently and cautiously but quickly. Pull a Homer Simpson and bring your best snake whacker for snakes and people passing you.

Be Smart About the Beast: The 10 degree wall with ropes that runners can use to pull themselves up and over. Find a rope with the most evenly spaced and most knots, grab with both hands over your head, keep your torso parallel to the wall and legs perpendicular to it. Reach hand over hand, pull, take a step, repeat until you're at the top. On the last hand-over-hand, grab the leg and pull yourself over. NEVER push downward on the wall to gain elevation... that's just what they're expecting you to do.

Train for Hills and Train for Cardio: The 4.4 miles will be excruciating if you don't have the leg strength and endurance. 98% of runners will give up and walk at some point... if not at most points.

Highlights:

The Superheroes: LOTS of people got into the superhero theme by dressing up. It keeps the race more light-hearted than hardcore-themed races like the Spartan Race. It was a fun crowd.

The Beast: There were some pretty big spills on this bad boy. Nobody got injured but, dang, it was entertaining to watch.

Overall it was a good time but it got me wondering how races differentiate themselves. If the Superhero Scramble and Spartan Race were at the same park, same trails, same length, similar obstacles, same music and food, same price, and people hit you, kinda, at the finish line would you choose one over the other?  Maybe it's just filling a gap in the calendar when there are no other races.

Also,why do people do this at all? There are very few occasions in American society where you will find yourself sweaty, muddy, bruised, and sometimes bleeding and our predecessors worked very hard to make it that way. Why do we want it?

I will be trying to answer these questions in the future. Stay tuned. 

Saturday, June 15, 2013

The Blog is Back

Time to get excited. Long Sox Fitness is back for the summer! It was a busy school year but things have settled waaay down and there's more time to focus on fun stuff again. So what's on the agenda for LSF over the next few months?

1) Exploring the keys to success in the fitness and sports industries: That's right. I'm in business school so let's get to the bottom of how people basically make money by pumping us up and playing games. I'll spare you the financial statements but there may be anywhere from a few to many, many bar, line, pie, and scatter charts. Even a heat map if you're lucky.

2) General fitness tips: Yep, still working out. Full-body weights and cardio but always mixing it up. There will be a yet-to-be-named adventure race in the near future. 

3) Basketball tips: I'm working on finishing shots and dribbling this summer. You'll get a glimpse of some of the drills, metrics, successes and failures along the way. 

4) Some other things: Carte blanche to write whatever I want. I'll try not to turn it into an online diary. Nobody cares.

PS: For those still following the Surfcycle Diaries the other two were Spiders and Sand. I left my coat on a porch one night and got bitten all over my arms the next day.

Also, on the motorcycle I tried to stop too quickly, used too much front brake, and turned over a patch of sand and put the bike down. I made it all the way from Boston to Wilmington before that happened and will not be headed back by motorcycle any time soon. Thanks for reading.