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Saturday, July 6, 2013

OCR Registration Income Model. Prettyyyy Rough

You read last time that I was creating a model for income for Obstacle Course Races so that I could determine what are some of the key factors to success in this quickly growing industry. I also said that it would be prettyyyy prettyyyy prettyyyy pretty rough, at least in the beginning. Prepare to be awestruck by this mathematical marvel:

Race Series Annual Income = 
(Average price of registration) x 
(Number of runners per race) x
(Number of race days) 


Let's look at an initial list of shortcomings so I can work on them in the future.

1) It neglects sponsor money and  food, retail, spectator ticket, and parking sales.

2) Average Price of Registration excludes:
Date of registration discounts: People registered three months in advance pay $60, "day-of" registerers pay $110
Special group discounts: veterans, students,organized teams, and volunteers benefit from this.
Coupons: You saw it in your Groupon Daily Deals and thought about it. Admit it.

3) Number of Runners: When race results are not posted I have to find the number of heats/day and guess how many runners are in each heat. Even then, heats aren't always full or published. But basically that's...

Number of Daily Runners =
[(Starting hour of last heat) -

(Starting hour of first heat)] x 
(Number of heats/hour) x 
(Runners/heat)

4) Number of Races Annually:

(Number of locations) x 
(Days of racing at each location)

So that's the start. I have at least 257 races to comb through and collect data. I'll write about differentiated and successful races throughout the process.

PS: How great are the faces of the people Larry David said, "pretty good," to? Straight faces hanging on the edge of the laughter cliff by a thread. 

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